Harper’s Scott Horton – somebody who has been investigating US plans against Iran for some time – now believes that the chance of a military strike is 70%:
I spoke with a number of European diplomats [after the recent opening of the UN General Assembly] who are keeping track of the issue, and I found a near uniform analysis. These diplomats believe that the United States will launch an air war on Iran, and that it will occur within the next six to eight months. I am therefore moving the hands of the Next War clock another minute closer to midnight and putting the likelihood of conflict at 70%. It’s still not certain, and it’s still avertable, but at this point it has to be seen as conventional wisdom to say that America is headed for another war in the Islamic world—it’s fourth since Bush became president, if we include the proxy war in Lebanon. And this time it will be a war against a nation with vastly greater military resources, as well as a demonstrated ability to wield terrorism as a tactic—Iran.
Much of the mainstream media remains asleep at the wheel, or complicit in pushing unsourced “information” about Iranian involvement in, well, pretty much everything. Problem with global warming? Blame Tehran. Issues with your air-con? Blame Iran.
Seymour Hersh uttered the unmentionable on Democracy Now yesterday, when asked to explain one of the sources of the current baiting:
Money. A lot of the Jewish money from New York. Come on, let’s not kid about it. A significant percentage of Jewish money, and many leading American Jews support the Israeli position that Iran is an existential threat. And I think it’s as simple as that. When you’re from New York and from New York City, you take the view of — right now, when you’re running a campaign, you follow that line.
It’s a brave thing to say. And true, of course. Many Jewish groups are pressuring the Bush administration and presidential candidates to endorse military action against Iran. For Israel’s sake.