The ringing endorsement of Fatah by the US and Israeli governments is proving to be a kiss of death.
The Islamists today represent the Palestinian mainstream, while Fatah is broken from top to bottom. Even more importantly, Abbas is increasingly isolated within his own organization, most of whose grassroots and mid-level leadership want nothing to do with the U.S. schemes on which Abbas has staked his future. By Halloween, expect Abbas to be either back in a unity government with Hamas, or else having departed the scene.
Mark Perry lists ten reasons why Hamas, rather than Fatah, will prevail.
- Palestinian society is not divided
- Hamas remains popular, and it is gaining strength
- Hamas represents mainstream Palestinian society
- Hamas is is not innately or irrevocably wedded to violence
- From top to bottom, Fatah is broken
- The political battle being waged in the West Bank now is being waged inside of Fatah
- Abu Mazen is increasingly isolated
- The united front of the U.S.-Israel and the Arab regimes is no match for Hamas in the battle for Palestinian support
- Hamas’s reign in Gaza undermines the propaganda of its foes
- Abu Mazen has crossed the line
Once again, the US and Israel have resorted to the most effective way NOT to win the hearts and minds of Palestine.